Is the Rise of Generative AI Answer Engines Threatening Search Engine Traffic?
A recent prediction by Gartner, a well-known technological research and consulting firm, has raised concerns about the future of search engine traffic. According to Gartner, there is an expected 25% decrease in traffic from search engines by 2026 due to the rise of generative AI answer engines. This prediction has caught the attention of SEO and PPC professionals, as search traffic plays a crucial role in generating revenue and profit for businesses.
The rise of generative AI has led to legitimate concerns about the impact it may have on traditional search engines like Google. Many experts believe that generative AI conversational assistants, such as ChatGPT and Claude, could potentially “steal” traffic that would have otherwise gone to websites or significantly increase costs for advertisers. In fact, some believe that ChatGPT is already gaining market share from Google.
Gartner’s prediction suggests a major shift in search marketing strategies, both paid and organic. The firm predicts that by 2026, traditional search engine volume will drop by 25%, with AI chatbots and other virtual agents gaining market share. This projection has significant implications for businesses relying on search marketing to drive traffic and conversions.
However, it is important to note that predictions are just educated guesses. While Gartner’s predictions are usually well-informed, they are not infallible. In fact, the firm previously made a surprising prediction that 50% of consumers would limit engagement or abandon social media by 2025 but later revised their stance.
In a previous prediction, Gartner also forecasted that organic search traffic would decrease by 50% or more as consumers embrace generative AI-powered search. This prediction was based on a survey conducted in August 2023, which revealed that 79% of respondents expected to use AI-enhanced search within the next year, and 70% of consumers had at least some trust in generative AI search results. As a result, Gartner advised brands to prepare for disruption and consider diversifying their marketing channels.
While Gartner’s predictions may hold some truth, it is essential to approach them with skepticism. The accuracy of these predictions will only be confirmed in 2026. It is recommended to treat Gartner’s predictions as entertaining and informative, but not as indisputable facts.
In conclusion, the rise of generative AI answer engines poses a potential threat to search engine traffic. Gartner’s prediction of a 25% decrease in search engine traffic by 2026 has sparked concerns among SEO and PPC professionals. However, it is important to remember that predictions are not guarantees, and the accuracy of these projections remains to be seen. Businesses should stay informed about the developments in generative AI and be prepared to adapt their search marketing strategies accordingly.
