The Potential Impact of Google SGE on Publishers’ Ad Revenue: Estimated Loss of $2 Billion

Google’s new Search Generative Experience (SGE) has the potential to cause a significant loss in advertising revenue for publishers, with estimates reaching up to $2 billion. This AI-powered search engine is expected to result in a decline in search traffic for publishers, ranging from 20% to 60%.

Raptive, the company responsible for ad sales for popular titles such as Half Baked Harvest, MacRumors, and Stereogum, conducted two analyses to assess the impact of SGE on search traffic. They compared Google’s current search engine results pages (SERPs) with the new SGE results for the top 1,000 keywords that drive traffic to their websites.

The study revealed that some keywords showed no SGE results, while others did feature links to Raptive websites. Using a program to calculate expected click-through rates, Raptive concluded that there would be an average traffic loss.

Marc McCollum, Raptive’s executive vice president of innovation, stated that when SGE is fully rolled out, it could lead to a 25% decline in search traffic across their network of 5,000 publishers.

This anticipated decline in search traffic has raised concerns among publishers about the impact on their digital ad revenue. It highlights the need for them to reassess their ad revenue strategies and make necessary adjustments. However, since SGE is still in beta, there is uncertainty about how exactly it will affect ads. This lack of clarity makes it challenging for publishers to adapt their strategies without knowing the specific changes they need to make.

It is important for publishers to delve deeper into understanding how SGE could impact their search traffic and ad revenue. They can refer to a guide provided by Search Engine Land for more information on this topic.

Overall, the introduction of Google’s SGE has the potential to disrupt publishers’ ad revenue significantly. With estimates suggesting a loss of up to $2 billion, it is crucial for publishers to stay informed about the changes and adapt their strategies accordingly.

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